وَلَوْ يُعَجِّلُ اللَّهُ لِلنَّاسِ الشَّرَّ اسْتِعْجَالَهُم بِالْخَيْرِ لَقُضِيَ إِلَيْهِمْ أَجَلُهُمْ فَنَذَرُ الَّذِينَ لاَ يَرْجُونَ لِقَاءَنَا فِي طُغْيَانِهِمْ يَعْمَهُونَ

وَإِذَا مَسَّ الإِنسَانَ الضُّرُّ دَعَانَا لِجَنبِهِ أَوْ قَاعِدًا أَوْ قَائِمًا فَلَمَّا كَشَفْنَا عَنْهُ ضُرَّهُ مَرَّ كَأَن لَّمْ يَدْعُنَا إِلَى ضُرٍّ مَّسَّهُ كَذَلِكَ زُيِّنَ لِلْمُسْرِفِينَ مَا كَانُواْ يَعْمَلُونَ

صدق الله العظيم

من سورة يونس

Quotes from “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”

a very nice read

I heard about it from 2 different trainers, one of them was giving us a quick course on mind mapping and the other about scenario building. So for a long time it was on my list and I finally finished it.

It can fool you as an easy read, and it is to some extent, but it has a problem of going in circles around the same idea for a long time. Nevertheless, I was rewarded every now and then with a brilliant idea, so it was ok at the end of the day.

Here are some of the words I liked:

“You need a story to displace a story. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read. If I have to go after what I call the narrative disciplines, my best tool is a narrative.
Ideas come and go, stories stay.”


“I noticed that very intelligent and informed persons were at no advantage over cabdrivers in their predictions, but there was a crucial difference. Cabdrivers did not believe that they understood as much as learned people—really, they were not the experts and they knew it.”


“awareness of a problem does not mean much—particularly when you have special interests and self-serving institutions in play.”


“Now, there are other themes arising from our blindness to the Black Swan:

a. We focus on preselected segments of the seen and generalize from it to the unseen: the error of confirmation.
b. We fool ourselves with stories that cater to our Platonic thirst for distinct patterns: the narrative fallacy.
c. We behave as if the Black Swan does not exist: human nature is not programmed for Black Swans.
d. What we see is not necessarily all that is there. History hides Black Swans from us and gives us a mistaken idea about the odds of these events: this is the distortion of silent evidence.
e. We “tunnel”: that is, we focus on a few well-defined sources of uncertainty, on too specific a list of Black Swans (at the expense of the others that do not easily come to mind).”



“The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship, upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding.”



“Our propensity to impose meaning and concepts blocks our awareness of the details making up the concept. H”



“The first problem is that information is costly to obtain.
The second problem is that information is also costly to store—like real estate in New York. The more orderly, less random, patterned, and narratized a series of words or symbols, the easier it is to store that series in one’s mind or jot it down in a book so your grandchildren can read it someday.”



“A novel, a story, a myth, or a tale, all have the same function: they spare us from the complexity of the world and shield us from its randomness”



“For me, one such antilogic came with the discovery—thanks to the literature on cognition—that, counter to what everyone believes, not theorizing is an act—that theorizing can correspond to the absence of willed activity, the “default” option. It takes considerable effort to see facts (and remember them) while withholding judgment and resisting explanations.”

كيف تنتهي الجماعات الإرهابية

نشرت مؤسسة راند منذ عدة سنوات دراسة حول كيفية القضاء على الجماعات الارهابية بدراسة حوالي 650 جماعة، خلال الفترة من 1968 إلى 2006. هدف الدراسة كان بحث الأسباب التي أدت إلى نهاية هذه التنظيمات. ولوحظ أن الخيار العسكري لم يكن الطريق الأمثل في التعامل مع التنظيمات الارهابية، إلا في حالة الحركات الانفصالية.

تتكون الدراسة من 7 فصول, من أهمها الفصل الثاني الذي يدرس الجماعات الإرهابية و أسباب نهايتها. الفصلان الثالث و الرابع درسا حالتين للإرهاب بالسلفادور, و   اليابان. الفصل الخامس يدرس تجربة استخدام القوة العسكرية لمواجهة القاعدة في العراق. الفصل السادس يناقش نشاط القاعدة بعد أحداث 11 سبتمبر, و سياسات الولايات المتحدة لمواجهتها. الفصل السابع يناقش آليات مواجهة الإرهاب, و المفهوم “الحرب على الإرهاب”.

جائز تكون المعلومات و الاستنتاجات الموجودة قديمة و لم تعد ذات نفس القيمة، ولكنها تلقي الضوء على زاوية في سبل مكافحة الارهاب.

من نتائج الدراسة:

هناك عدة أسباب لحل الجماعات الإرهابية: إنخراطها في النظام السياسي (43 %), تدخل الشرطة المحلية و أجهزة المخابرات عن طريق القبض على قيادات التنظيم أو اغتيالهم (40%), في حالات نادرة نجحت الجماعات الإرهابية في تحقيق أهدافها (10%), و في حالات أكثر ندرة استطاعت القوة العسكرية القضاء على التنظيمات الإرهابية (%7)ـ

 كما تحدثت عنأدوات مجابهة الإرهاب: أنشطة شرطية و مخابرتية, قوة عسكرية, مفاوضات سياسية, عقوبات إقتصادية. بحيث يستطيع متخذو القرار تحديد أولوياتهم في استخدام تلك الأدوات. ومزجها بما يناسب الحالة

:ملاحظات عامة حسب نوع الجماعات الإرهابية:

‌أ-     القضاء على الجماعات ذات التوجه الديني أصعب من بقية الجماعات (تم القضاء على 62% من الجماعات الإرهابية منذ عام 1968, و لكن نسبة القضاء على الجماعات الإرهابية الدينية كانت 32% فقط). و لكن في نفس الوقت لم تستطع أي جماعة إرهابية ذات توجه ديني أن تصل لأهدافها منذ 1968.

‌ب-الجماعات المتواجدة في الدول الغنية أكثر قابلية لأن يكون توجهها يساري أو شعبي, في حين أن توجه تلك الموجودة في الدول الأقل نمواً يكون غالباً دينياً.

‌ج-الجماعات الكبيرة أكثر قدرة في الوصول لأهدافها (الجماعات ذات 10 آلاف عضو وصلت لأهدافها في  25% من الحالات, في حين أن معدل نجاح الجماعات الصغيرة الأقل من ألف عضو كان ضئيلاً).

‌د-   قابلية الوصول لحلول سياسية تقل إذا توسعت أهداف المنظمة (خاصة إذا اتسمت بطابع ديني), و العكس صحيح, فإذا ضاق نطاق أهداف المنظمة كان الوصول لحلول سياسية أسهل.

4-الشرطة و المخابرات لهم خبرة و تدريب أفضل من الجيش في التغلل في صفوف الجماعات الإرهابية التقليدية. في حين أن القوة العسكرية أكثر فائدة في مواجهة الجماعات الإرهابية الإنفصالية, لأنها تكون أكثر تنظيماً و أكبر عدداً و بالتالي لا يمكن مواجهتها إلا باستخدام قوة تعادلها.

يمكن تحميل الدراسة عبر الرابط التالي

Cloud Atlas

“My life amounts to no more than one drop in a limitless ocean. Yet what is any ocean, but a multitude of drops?”

“Our lives are not our own. We are bound to others, past and present, and by each crime and every kindness, we birth our future.”

“Books don’t offer real escape, but they can stop a mind scratching itself raw.”

“You say you’re ‘depressed’ – all i see is resilience. You are allowed to feel messed up and inside out. It doesn’t mean you’re defective – it just means you’re human.”

“Why does any martyr cooperate with his judases?…We see a game beyond the endgame…As Seneca warned Nero: No matter how many of us you kill, you will never kill your successor.”
― David MitchellCloud Atlas

Cloud-Atlas

Italo Calvino – Invisible Cities

“On the day when Eutropia’s inhabitants feel the grip of weariness and no one can bear any longer his job, his relatives, his house and his life, debts, the people he must greet or who greet him, then the whole citizenry decides to move to the next city, which is there waiting for them, empty and good as new; there each will take up a new job, a different wife, will see another landscape on opening his window, and will spend his time with different pastimes, friends, gossip. So their life is renewed from move to move, among cities whose exposure or declivity or streams or winds make each site somehow different from the others. Since their society is ordered without great distinctions of wealth or authority, the passage from one function to another takes place almost without jolts; variety is guaranteed by the multiple assignments, so that in the span of a lifetime a man rarely returns to a job that has already been his.
Thus the city repeats its life, identical, shifting up and down on its empty chessboard. The inhabitants repeat the same scenes, with the actors changed; they repeat the same speeches with variously combined accents; they open alternate mouths in identical yawns. Alone, among all the cities of the empire, Eutropia remains always the same. Mercury, god of the fickle, to whom the city is sacred, worked this ambiguous miracle.”

“Yes, the empire is sick, and, what is worse, it is trying to become accustomed to its sores. This is the aim of my explorations: examining the traces of happiness still to be glimpsed, I gauge its short supply. If you want to know how much darkness there is around you, you must sharpen your eyes, peering at the faint lights in the distance.”

“The city does not tell its past, but contains it like the lines of a hand, written in the corners of the streets, the gratings of the windows, the banisters of the steps, the antennae of the lightning rods, the poles of the flags, every segment marked in turn with scratches, indentations, scrolls.”

“The inferno of the living is not something that will be; if there is one, it is what is already here, the inferno where we live every day, that we form by being together. There are two ways to escape suffering it. The first is easy for many: accept the inferno and become such a part of it that you can no longer see it. The second is risky and demands constant vigilance and apprehension: seek and learn to recognize who and what, in the midst of the inferno, are not inferno, then make them endure, give them space.”

the passage from one function to another takes place almost without jolts; variety is guaranteed by the multiple assignments, so that in the span of a lifetime a man rarely returns to a job that has already been his. Thus the city repeats its life, identical, shifting up and down on its empty chessboard. The inhabitants repeat the same scenes, with the actors changed; they repeat the same speeches with variously combined accents; they open alternate mouths in identical yawns. Alone, among all the cities of the empire, Eutropia remains always the same.

“Yes, the empire is sick, and, what is worse, it is trying to become accustomed to its sores. This is the aim of my explorations: examining the traces of happiness still to be glimpsed, I gauge its short supply. If you want to know how much darkness there is around you, you must sharpen your eyes, peering at the faint lights in the distance.”