إدارة المخاطر في زمن الكوارث

بعد كل كارثة تواجهها مصر، يتاولى النحيب والعويل على الاهمال والفساد الذي يتسبب في ضياع عشرات / مئات / آلاف الأرواح، وتقوم الحكومة مشكورة بـ”محاسبة” بعض صغار المسئولين، وربما قد تصل إلى إقالة بعض كبار المسئولين لامتصاص السخط الشعبي، ثم تدفع “تعويضات” لأهالي الموتى والجرحى! ولكن هل يشفي هذا غليل الناس ؟؟ وماذا يتم فعلياً لتلافي حدوث مثل هذه الكارثة في المستقبل؟؟ صفر!! ـ
تتغير الوجوه الكالحة، تتبدل الأسماء بالبنط العريض، ويظل المصير واحد.ـ

وهنا أنا لا أتهم شخص بعينه أو مسؤوا محدد، بل اتهم كائن هلامي يعشش في العقلية المصرية، نقبله بكل بساطة لأننا تعودنا وجوده معنا وأصبح مكون أساسي في الشخصية المصرية، وهو اللامبالاة. بداية من الأب الذي يسافر دون التأكد من سلامة الاطار الاحتياطي، السائق الذي “يخطف” الدوران عكس الطريق، حارس الأمن الذي يتجاهل صفير جهاز الكشف عن المعادن، وصولاً إلى الفني الذي لم يقم بمراجعة أجهزة عبارة، أو حارس لم يضع سلسلة مزلقان القطار. كل هؤلاء يرددون “حتعدي المرة دي” ، “ان شاء الله خير” ، “إيه اللي حيحصل يعني” ، “فال الله ولا فالك”، إننما لو فكروا لوهلة في فداحة مصابهم إذا حدث ما هو ممكن، ومقارنة تكلفة الخطوات الاضافية مقابل الاحساس بالأمان، لعصروا على أنفسهم ليمونة وأعادوا التفكير مرة أخرى في إرشادات الأمن والسلامة.

إدارة المخاطر تعني ببساطة تقييم المخاطرة حسب احتمال وقوعها والآثار المترتبة عليها، ثم العمل على بناء منظومة للتعامل مع تلك المشكلة حسب أهميتها. فمثلاًالمخاطر التي قد لا تتكرر ولكن لها تأثير مدمر (مثل الحوادث) يجب أن تكون على قائمة الأولويات مقارنة بمخاطر قد تتكرر ولكن تأثيرها أضعف نسبياً (مثل انقطاع الكهرباء). ولذا تلك المخاطر ذات الأهمية القصوى  يجب أن تكون خط أحمر ، يعلم كل فرد في الهيئات المعنية دوره لتلافي حدوثها، ليس بسبب التعليمات الملصقة على الحائط ، بل بسبب الأرواح المرتبطة بهذا الحدث الشنيع.  وقتها قد نستطيع محاصرة الفهلوة المصريةالتي تستمتع بالتحايل على التعليمات والتهرب منها. الاحساس بالمسئولية هو الحل. ـ

صديقة لي تعمل في مجال التنمية، مرت بتجربة وضحت لي أنه لا يزال هناك أمل في العقلية المصرية للتغير. كانت صديقتي تعمل في برنامج يهدف إلى التوعية بأساليب السلامة والصحة المهنية في الحرف اليدوية، وكان تطبيق البرنامج في مدينة تشتهر بورشها الحرفية. واجهت صديقتي صعوبات كثيرة للوصول إلى مفتاح الشخصية الحرفية لكي يتقبلوا النظر في تغيير أسلوب عملهم، ولكنها في النهاية استطاعت إلى كسر هذا الحاجز عندما ذكرتهم بالوقت والجهد والمال الذي سيتم توفيره إذا اهتم صاحب الورشة بصحة وسلامة الصنايعية العاملين معه. ورغم ذلك استمرت بعض التذمرات من الوقت المهدر في محاضرات وشروحات يعلمونها جيداً (وإن كانوا لا يطبقونها)، مثل التعامل مع الأجهزة الحادة، استخدام أجهزة الاطفاء، تحديد مخارج الطوارئ، حتى وقع حاث حريق أليم بإحدى الورش، أصيب فيه عدة عمال بحروق مختلفة الدرجات، إلا أن البعض استطاع في وسط ألسنة اللهب تذكر أن الورشة أكيد بها مخرج للطوارئ، وفي النهاية وجده ونجى بحياته رغم الحروق الخطيرة التي ألمت به.  ,وأنا متأكدة أنه منذ تلك الواقعة سيعلم المشاركون أن محاضرة السلامة المهنية وخطط الإخلاء ليست مجرد ساعتين يمضوها والسلام، بل أصبحت في صميم اهتمام صاحب الورشة لكونه المسؤول عن العاملين معه. ـ

نعود مرة أخرى إلى تطبيق منظومة إدارة المخاطر على الواقع المصري المتخاذل، سنجد أن ما يتراءى لأذهان المتخصصين مباشرة هو إدارة المخاطر المالية، والتي تضطلع بها إدارات مخصصة بالبنوك والمؤسسات المالية بشكل عام، نظراً لوجود حافز اقتصادي مباشر. أما فكرة إدارة المخاطر بالمفهوم الأعم الذي يفسر الخطر بمختلف أشكاله، فلا يتم تطبيقه إلا في شركات معدودة، وفي الأغلب لا يكون ذلك لوجود نظرة قائدة مسؤولة لا سمح الله، بل عادة بسبب وجود متطلبات من المستثمرين الأجانب الذين يعتمدون على أنظمتهم في الرقابة على أداء الشركات، فتتحول الإدارة في النهاية إلى استمارات تملأ ثم ترسل في تقرير إلى مجلس الإدارة وفي النهاية تخزن في الأرشيف. ـ

أما في القطاع العام، فإذا حدث أن سمع أحد المسؤولين “الواصلين” بفكرة إدارة المخاطر وأعجبته، فإني أتوقع الآتي: أولاً سيقوم بكتابة مذكرة لمتخذي القرار في الحكومة، وإن أشر بالموافقة، قد يأمر إما باضطلاع إحدى اللجان بدراسة هذا الموضوع تعود إليه بتقرير بعد سنة، أو سيذهب إلى شركة أجنبية (لمجرد كونها شركة أجنبية) تصل إلى تقارير مشحونة بتوصيات ثمنها ملايين الدولارات. ثم يعمم منشور دوري لكافة الإدارات والقطاعات بالحكومة لتطبيقها، يتم إحالتها يوم بعد يوم إلى أصغر أعضاء الإدارة سناً، ويمر الوقت وتصبح هذه الفكرة مجرد حبر على ورق يلف به حارس الأمن ساندوتشات الفول الصباحية.ـ

الحل الأوقع في رأيي هو أولاً زرع الاحساس بالمسؤولية لدى الأفراد القائمين على الخدمات ذات أخطر التأثيرات على الجمهور، سواء في مجال النقل، والصحة، والبنية التحتية. كيفية الوصول إلى ذلك الهدف النبيل ليست بالأمر الهين. فمعرفة مفتاح شخصية المخاطب والتسلل في وعيه يجب أن تتم بسلاسة ليقوم هو شخصيا باقناع نفسه الآمرة بالسوء بضرورة اتباع تعليمات السلامة. ثانياً، يجب أن تبدأ المؤسسات بدراسة سوابق الحوادث والكوارث التي تعرضت، ووضع تصورات عن ماذا سيحدث لو تكررت صباح غد. هل بمقدرتها تحجيم تأثيرها؟ هل تستطيع وأدها من البداية؟ ما هي الحلول الواقعية التي يمكن البدء بها للقضاء على جذور تلك المشكلة؟ ثالثاً، يجب أن تحدد كل مؤسسة (سواء كانت الشركة صغيرة الحجم أو الحكومة بكل أجهزتها) قائمة المخاطر الممكن حدوثها (أخذاً في الاعتبار دراسات السوابق الكارثية مثلما ذكرنا في النقطة السابقة)، لتحديد أولويات وضع الحلول حسب معيار احتمال وقوع الحدث وتأثيره المتوقع. على الأقل سيمكن عن طريق هذا وضع تصور لكيفية التغلب على مصائب الزمن وإهمال البشر.ـ

في الحقيقة لا أدري الفائدة الحقيقية لهذه الكلمات. ربما هي مجرد تنفيس عن الغضب بعد حادث القطار، وربما يكون الدافع هو الرعب من احتمال تعرضي أنا شخصياً أو فرد من أسرتي لتجربة مماثلة نتيجة الإهمال الفردي والمؤسسي ، وتراكم التراب على العقل المصري حتى صار لا يفكر في المصيبة إلا فور وقوعها ثم ينساها (أو يتناساها) حتى تقع مرة أخرى ليعاود نفس وتيرة العويل دون فعل حقيقي لمنع حدوث الكارثة مرة أخرى. ولعل وعسى يكون هذا الكلام الموجز خطوة -وإن كانت ميكروسكوبية- نحو سيناريو أفضل لمصر.ـ

10 Things they don’t tell you about motherhood

As most women do, the moment I knew I was pregnant, I started my research about everything I can know about this new phase of life. Starting from books, websites, videos, articles,,,, etc everything. Yet despite all of this, I was still surprised with some stuff that no one warned me about. And I assure you that even after reading this, you will face something different that you didn’t hear about from the doctor or your research.

1- The Standard Inconveniences 

Anything you feel out of the ordinary, it’s because of preganancy. Pain in weird places, nasal congestion, sleeplessness, tiredeness, hemorrhoid, ear humming, breathlessness, weird dreams, you name it. After knowing the symptoms and checking out what it is, you will find pregnancy as one of the symptoms. It messes the balance of your whole body. So don’t worry, and look for how to deal with these inconveniences.

2- Saving up some zzz,,, HA!

People told me to sleep as much as I can in the last phase of pregnancy to “save up hours of sleep for later on”. It’s true that you won’t have a deep enjoyable 8 hours of sleep as you used to (for me I can count the number of 8-hours of sleep nights on one hand and I gave birth in January!). BUT no matter how much rest you had in the last phase of pregnancy, these hours of extra dozing won’t do a thing and you will be dead tired in the first few months. Motherhood tax.

3- Paiiiiiiiiiiin ? or pain pain pain?

Choosing whether you want a natural birth or C-section  ultimately ends with just one question. Are you capable of withholding one extremely intense pain for one day, or would you prefer milder pain for several days. Your pain, your choice.

4- Goodbye old me

The moment you know you are pregnant, your whole life has changed. Your relationship with your parents, in-laws, family friends will be different. You will appreciate more the challenges your mum endured to raise you and you will feel sorry for every time you had a fight, cause at the end of the day you won’t be able to imagine that your baby, for whom you have suffered so much, will get angry on you for an extra hour to sit with friends. You will feel the importance of family ties and extended family meanings. Your discussions will ultimately resolve around child care, which is not very interesting to your single friends.

5- Can I offer you some Tea?

The second & third months of pregnancy, and the first two months after giving birth are the hardest. God be with you. And be a sweetheart and don’t impose your visits on new mothers during this critical period, unless you are close friends and you’ll be able to offer help, cause new mums won’t have the mind or the energy to play host.

6- Humm Num

This is a repeated advice, but here it goes. During pregnancy, if you can make food & preserve it in the freezer, do so. Or else collect all home delivery menus you can, make a mental list on where you can get fast, yummy lunch. You won’t be able to step in the kitchen for a long time, and thinking where to eat will be an added nuisance. Plus, eating the same take out food over and over again will be boooring. So prepare ahead.

7- Doc Talks

Your doctors will be provide you with all the details you need to know to go through pregnancy. Talking with family & friends might give you further information, but your research is indispensable. On my first doctor visits (& I have tried more than one), I expected him/ her to go through pregnancy step by step, with all what I needed to know on what to eat, what to expect, what to fear, what not to fear, but even the most experienced doctor can’t possibly give you all that you need to know. There are lots of resources on this subject, and elhamdlelah God provided with the tools to understand more and face less surprises, so why not use it.

8- S, for Surgery

During the C section, my body was shivering, I felt extremely annoyed, I wanted to throw up, and ill at ease in general. And for a few days afterwards, my neck and back were killing me. NORMAL.

9- Scale issues

I was very concerned about pregnancy as I am already overweight. But I discovered that it is not necessarily that pregnancy will make you fatter. I kept track of my weight, and surprisingly I didn’t gain that much after I gave birth. But the doctor mentioned it with a certain tone a couple of time, namely while looking on the sonar screen, after the surgery, looking after the stitches. So fat is not really helpful during pregnancy, but it is not to be feared.

10- It’s all worth it

Finally, and this is something all books, and advice columns mention, despite all the hardships, pain, nuisance, sleepless nights (and days), frustration, headache and general exhaustion , you will feel the true sense of happiness and peace.

Welcome to motherhood. Enjoy the ride!

Chipsobasta in Amman

I have a confession. Though I love traveling, I didn’t visit that many Arab countries, mainly it was a day in Syria (in a  coastal city I don’t recall its name) and a day Beirut, that were part of a Mediterranean cruise I did in 1999 ! So when I made up my mind to take this trip I was particularly excited. First, to meet my family members who lived there, second, to broaden up my traveling list.

 

This whole trip started with a mere conversation with a friend of mine 5 years ago. We were talking about preserving  knowledge, and how documenting family heritage is crucial to preserve our identity, and we talked about my own family history and its voyage from the Caucasus. This led to prolonged conversations with my father, and we draw some sketches of our family tree, and he helped me with some information on his grandfather who came to egypt in the late 19th century.

Then I dig in my grandfather’s papers, and found among the yellowed paper, some letters, when he used to correspond with his cousin (and closest friend). And through these letters, I was touched with the amount of brotherly bonds between them, and the extent of which they were on the same track of thoughts and general attitude, that it felt like having another grandfather, who grew up in Cairo, but decided to settle down in Amman.

Weeks go by, and this post helped me get in touch with some family members living in Egypt and some living in Jordan.  And a year later, I met one of my relatives in the street of London by mere chance! We were in touch via mail and
phone, but as our schedules didn’t coincide, we didn’t have the chance to meet. But Destiny had another say, and she saw  me on a random street in London and actually recognized me, cause I look like her Aunt!! My heart was pounding so
hard! It was a sign that this family connection is meant to be refurbished.

When I landed in Queen Rania airport, it took me a while to get to acquainted with the new Arab slang I was hearing. A  friend of mine once told me that when he first landed in the US, he was shocked to find himself not understanding English for a couple of hours despite the long years of using it in Egypt! Where is the Babel fish when you need one??

Before leaving the airport, I was greeted with a huge billboard saying: tagawal ma3a shabaka amneya (walk around with  a security network!). Okaaaay! So I was leaving Egypt behind with some instability, only to go to amman where they advertise on body guards companies in the airport! Then, I discovered that it was not “Amneya: security”, but “Omneya: wish”, the name of a mobile operator! So the phrase actually meant: Roam with Omneya’s network! sigh!

Needless to say, I enjoyed every single moment of my visit. it didn’t feel like it was the first time to meet these wonderful people. It felt more like we knew each other all along. I was very grateful for having all these loving aunts. Perhaps I was more so, because of my new motherhood feelings, which prompted me to re-establish “selat el ra7em”. I find the Arabic word much stronger, because at the end there is some common blood between me and them, and it all started with one woman, only 4 generations ago, who gave birth in a noble house somewhere on top of the cherkessk mountains.

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The first thing that came to my mind when I was invited for lunch and asked what type of food I want, was -of course-  the sharkasseya. For if I was invited by circassians, I definitely should taste their original version of the famous dish.

El Sharkasseya (or Chipsobasta) consists generally of 3 different parts: rice, chicken and walnut sauce. There are very  few differences between the original and the one we make in Cairo. for instance, they sprinkle some chili sauce on top of it, we don’t. They mix rice with borghol, we use only rice but add a tinsy bit extra water. They use the whole chicken, we use only the breasts. We use bread for the sauce, they use flour.

I also tasted the circassian cheese, which is kinda similar to the low fat “gebna 2arish”, but with a bit more salt.

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As a sword enthusiast, I was gladly shown some circassian swords (called Qamah). It is said that every family should  have at least one sword and one dagger, which makes sense looking at the tendency of circassian for learning how to fight.

the circassian sword is straight, and its thickness is average. In the ones I saw, the cover was silver , with some simple drawings. It looked practical, and not too heavy.

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Amman is a new capital, it was built in 1920’s, on the ruins of an old city called Philadelphia, which was on the road of commerce between the Arab penninsula and Syria. And bit by bit, it grew bigger and bigger along a number of squares (called دوار ) and several hills. These squares are numbered from 1 to 8, and are used extensively in giving directions. And as a general advice, try to visit both the eastern and the western neighborhoods of Amman to get a feeling of the City’s vibe.

In the Area of Jabbal Amman, off the first dowwar lies in the old parts of Amman, and close to it there is the famous Rainbow street, with a bunch of cafes, crafts shops,,, etc. Also, in the vicinity is the Roman Amphitheater, and the Citadel.

On Fridays, check out Souk Jara, it opens from 10 am to 10 pm, it has lots of booths showing traditional crafts, antiques, textiles,,, plus some food and drinks outlets. It has the same feeling of our El Korba festival, but much quieter.

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Amman itself won’t offer you lots of historical sightseeing, but some short excursions will immerse you in ancient monuments.

I had the chance to visit only 2 sites (Madaba and Mount Nebo), and I was back in Amman in less than 4 hours.

Madaba is famous for its 6th century AD mosaic map, which is the oldest surviving original cartographic depiction of the Holy Land and especially Jerusalem.

Mount Nebo is approximately 817 meters  above sea level. And when you get to the summit, you can have a panoramic view of the Holy Land. It is famous in the Christian and Jewish tradition cause it is considered that this is where Moses (peace be upon him) was buried there.  Needless to say I had to focus every time I mentioned this mount, cause replacing B with an M makes a lot of difference.

Jordan has much more to offer. Next time insha allah, the De

The Early Years of Documentaries in Egypt

Have you heard about the early years of documentaries and short films in Egypt? check out this article:

https://i0.wp.com/www.bibalex.org/AlexCinema/films/images/Documentaries_Short_Films/toussun_exchange_resize.jpg

1896
The screening of the Lumière Brothers film in Toussoun Bourse (first projection of motion picture in Egypt)

https://i0.wp.com/www.bibalex.org/AlexCinema/films/images/Documentaries_Short_Films/Des_Consuls_resize.jpg

1897: The screening of the documentary film Place des Consuls, à Alexandrie shot by Mr. Promio on behalf of the Lumière Brothers. This is the first screening of “Pellicules” (celluloid film) filmed in Egypt.

If anyone knows where to find these movies, PLEASE let me know 🙂

Blending Physical Therapy with Martial Arts

http://clarkson.edu/news/thumbnail.php?img=news%2Fphotos%2Frussek-aikido.jpg&size=200

“The physical aspects of Aikido overlap with the physical aspects of physical therapy in many respects. For example, in physical therapy, when I am laying my hands on a person to stretch out a muscle, I have to be relaxed for them to relax. If I touch a person when I am tensed, they’ll tend to be tensed. In Aikido, it’s exactly the same way. The same physical skill and the same sense of connecting to a person from my center that is used in Aikido are used in physical therapy.” – Leslie Russek

Medieval Mosques Illuminated by Math

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Magnificently sophisticated geometric patterns in medieval Islamic architecture indicate their designers achieved a mathematical breakthrough 500 years earlier than Western scholars, scientists said on Thursday.

By the 15th century, decorative tile patterns on these masterpieces of Islamic architecture reached such complexity that a small number boasted what seem to be “quasicrystalline” designs, Harvard University’s Peter Lu and Princeton University’s Paul Steinhardt wrote in the journal Science.

Only in the 1970s did British mathematician and cosmologist Roger Penrose become the first to describe these geometric designs in the West. Quasicrystalline patterns comprise a set of interlocking units whose pattern never repeats, even when extended infinitely in all directions, and possess a special form of symmetry.” Source: Yahoo news,

https://i2.wp.com/media.npr.org/programs/atc/features/2007/feb/islamic_pattern/arch_200.jpghttps://i0.wp.com/media.npr.org/programs/atc/features/2007/feb/islamic_pattern/archpattern_200.jpg (Turkish mosque)

 Historic buildings in the Islamic world are often covered with breathtakingly intricate geometric designs. Both artists and mathematicians have long puzzled over them, wondering how the patterns were created…. In fact, the pattern isn’t random. Steinhardt says if you do the math, you see that it all fits together in predictable way. (source: NPR)

https://i1.wp.com/media.npr.org/programs/atc/features/2007/feb/islamic_pattern/iran_200.jpghttps://i0.wp.com/media.npr.org/programs/atc/features/2007/feb/islamic_pattern/iranpattern_200.jpg(Darb-i Imam shrine in Iran)

Isn’t it just amazing!! This is one of the reasons I love walking in the streets of Islamic Cairo and gazing in the beautiful decorative tiles, just amazing!